Group G · IRN
· outside top-16
Iran
Strength
76.6
± 2.1
Attack
74.7
0–100
Defense
77.4
0–100
P(champion)
0.62%
1.7% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.62%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · +0.5pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · +0.6pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
20.1%
R16
37.5%
Quarter
14.5%
Semi
5.0%
Final
1.7%
Recent form
last 6
W
3–1
v
Gambia
W
5–0
v
Costa Rica
L
1–2
v
Nigeria
L
0–0
v
UZB
W
0–0
v
CPV
W
2–0
v
Tanzania
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(IRN win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | H vs New Zealand (NZL) | 55.6% | 28.5% | |
| 2026-06-21 | A vs Belgium (BEL) | 22.6% | 26.1% | |
| 2026-06-26 | A vs Egypt (EGY) | 36.2% | 32.9% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Iran (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.