Group I · IRQ
· outside top-16
Iraq
Strength
69.7
± 1.6
Attack
66.6
0–100
Defense
72.3
0–100
P(champion)
0.01%
0.0% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.01%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp
Kalshi
0.5%
implied · -0.5pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
2.4%
R16
5.9%
Quarter
1.4%
Semi
0.2%
Final
0.0%
Recent form
last 6
W
1–0
v
Andorra
W
2–1
v
Bolivia
L
0–1
v
JOR
L
0–2
v
ALG
W
2–0
v
Sudan
W
2–1
v
Bahrain
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(IRQ win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | H vs Norway (NOR) | 16.3% | 24.6% | |
| 2026-06-22 | A vs France (FRA) | 8.6% | 20.1% | |
| 2026-06-26 | A vs Senegal (SEN) | 17.2% | 29.2% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
5 verified outlets for Iraq (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.