Group A · KOR
· outside top-16
South Korea
Strength
75.6
± 1.7
Attack
74.2
0–100
Defense
76.0
0–100
P(champion)
0.33%
1.0% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.33%
to lift
Polymarket
0.2%
implied · +0.1pp
Kalshi
0.2%
implied · +0.1pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
20.2%
R16
31.7%
Quarter
11.3%
Semi
3.5%
Final
1.0%
Recent form
last 6
W
5–0
v
Trinidad and Tobago
L
0–1
@
AUT
L
0–4
v
CIV
W
1–0
vs
GHA
W
2–0
vs
Bolivia
W
2–0
vs
PAR
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(KOR win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | H vs Czech Republic (CZE) | 35.9% | 28.8% | |
| 2026-06-18 | A vs Mexico (MEX) | 25.4% | 26.9% | |
| 2026-06-24 | A vs South Africa (RSA) | 45.0% | 30.2% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for South Korea (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.