Group C · MAR
Morocco
Strength
81.5
± 1.8
Attack
76.4
0–100
Defense
84.5
0–100
P(champion)
2.63%
5.8% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
2.63%
to lift
Polymarket
1.4%
implied · +1.2pp
Kalshi
1.4%
implied · +1.2pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
23.0%
R16
47.6%
Quarter
27.2%
Semi
13.7%
Final
5.8%
Recent form
last 6
W
5–0
vs
Burundi
W
2–1
v
PAR
D
1–1
v
ECU
W
3–0
vs
SEN
W
0–0
vs
Nigeria
W
2–0
vs
Cameroon
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(MAR win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | A vs Brazil (BRA) | 21.6% | 31.8% | |
| 2026-06-19 | A vs Scotland (SCO) | 47.6% | 31.1% | |
| 2026-06-24 | H vs Haiti (HAI) | 72.7% | 18.9% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Morocco (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.