Group A · MEX
Mexico
Strength
77.5
± 1.3
Attack
75.3
0–100
Defense
78.4
0–100
P(champion)
0.98%
3.0% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.98%
to lift
Polymarket
1.0%
implied · -0.0pp
Kalshi
1.1%
implied · -0.2pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
50.0%
R16
48.6%
Quarter
20.3%
Semi
7.7%
Final
3.0%
Recent form
last 6
W
1–0
v
AUS
W
2–0
vs
GHA
D
1–1
v
BEL
D
0–0
vs
POR
W
4–0
vs
Iceland
W
1–0
@
Bolivia
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(MEX win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | H vs South Africa (RSA) | 58.0% | 25.0% | |
| 2026-06-18 | H vs South Korea (KOR) | 47.6% | 26.9% | |
| 2026-06-24 | H vs Czech Republic (CZE) | 48.7% | 25.8% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Mexico (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.