Group F · NED
Netherlands
Strength
82.9
± 1.5
Attack
84.3
0–100
Defense
80.1
0–100
P(champion)
3.95%
8.1% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
3.95%
to lift
Polymarket
3.7%
implied · +0.2pp
Kalshi
3.8%
implied · +0.2pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
49.6%
R16
46.4%
Quarter
30.0%
Semi
16.2%
Final
8.1%
Recent form
last 6
D
1–1
vs
ECU
W
2–1
vs
NOR
W
4–0
vs
Lithuania
D
1–1
@
Poland
W
4–0
vs
Finland
W
4–0
@
Malta
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(NED win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | H vs Japan (JPN) | 46.4% | 26.0% | |
| 2026-06-20 | H vs Sweden (SWE) | 52.9% | 23.4% | |
| 2026-06-25 | A vs Tunisia (TUN) | 55.4% | 26.1% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Netherlands (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.