Group I · NOR
· outside top-16
Norway
Strength
78.9
± 2.0
Attack
79.9
0–100
Defense
76.9
0–100
P(champion)
0.92%
2.5% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.92%
to lift
Polymarket
2.5%
implied · -1.5pp
Kalshi
2.2%
implied · -1.3pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
20.9%
R16
36.4%
Quarter
15.8%
Semi
6.5%
Final
2.5%
Recent form
last 6
W
3–1
vs
SWE
D
0–0
vs
SUI
L
1–2
@
NED
W
4–1
@
Italy
W
4–1
vs
Estonia
D
1–1
vs
NZL
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(NOR win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | A vs Iraq (IRQ) | 58.9% | 24.6% | |
| 2026-06-22 | H vs Senegal (SEN) | 37.3% | 28.9% | |
| 2026-06-26 | H vs France (FRA) | 22.3% | 25.2% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Norway (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.