Group G · NZL
· outside top-16
New Zealand
Strength
67.2
± 2.2
Attack
63.3
0–100
Defense
70.9
0–100
P(champion)
0.0%
0.0% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.0%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
3.0%
R16
7.1%
Quarter
1.2%
Semi
0.3%
Final
0.0%
Recent form
last 6
W
4–1
vs
Chile
L
0–2
vs
Finland
L
0–2
v
ECU
L
1–2
v
COL
D
1–1
@
NOR
L
0–1
@
Poland
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(NZL win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | A vs Iran (IRN) | 15.9% | 28.5% | |
| 2026-06-21 | H vs Egypt (EGY) | 17.4% | 31.6% | |
| 2026-06-26 | H vs Belgium (BEL) | 8.6% | 19.0% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for New Zealand (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.