Group L · PAN
· outside top-16
Panama
Strength
69.9
± 1.6
Attack
69.7
0–100
Defense
69.8
0–100
P(champion)
0.03%
0.1% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.03%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
2.8%
R16
6.5%
Quarter
1.6%
Semi
0.3%
Final
0.1%
Recent form
last 6
L
2–6
@
BRA
W
2–1
@
RSA
D
1–1
@
RSA
L
0–1
vs
MEX
D
1–1
@
Bolivia
W
3–0
vs
El Salvador
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(PAN win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | A vs Ghana (GHA) | 31.0% | 28.6% | |
| 2026-06-23 | H vs Croatia (CRO) | 13.9% | 21.8% | |
| 2026-06-27 | H vs England (ENG) | 7.6% | 17.5% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Panama (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.