Group D · PAR
· outside top-16
Paraguay
Strength
76.4
± 1.9
Attack
72.6
0–100
Defense
78.9
0–100
P(champion)
0.41%
1.3% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.41%
to lift
Polymarket
0.2%
implied · +0.2pp
Kalshi
0.2%
implied · +0.2pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
20.7%
R16
31.3%
Quarter
11.9%
Semi
4.2%
Final
1.3%
Recent form
last 6
L
1–2
v
MAR
W
1–0
@
Greece
W
2–1
v
MEX
L
1–2
@
USA
L
0–2
@
KOR
D
2–2
@
JPN
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(PAR win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | A vs United States (USA) | 31.2% | 29.0% | |
| 2026-06-19 | A vs Turkey (TUR) | 34.3% | 29.4% | |
| 2026-06-25 | H vs Australia (AUS) | 33.3% | 33.1% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Paraguay (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.