Group K · POR
Portugal
Strength
84.4
± 1.6
Attack
84.8
0–100
Defense
82.4
0–100
P(champion)
6.68%
12.4% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
6.68%
to lift
Polymarket
10.1%
implied · -3.5pp
Kalshi
9.0%
implied · -2.3pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
51.3%
R16
63.4%
Quarter
39.8%
Semi
23.1%
Final
12.4%
Recent form
last 6
W
2–0
@
USA
D
0–0
@
MEX
W
9–1
vs
Armenia
L
0–2
@
Republic of Ireland
D
2–2
vs
Hungary
W
1–0
vs
Republic of Ireland
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(POR win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | H vs DR Congo (COD) | 65.7% | 22.2% | |
| 2026-06-23 | H vs Uzbekistan (UZB) | 64.1% | 23.1% | |
| 2026-06-27 | A vs Colombia (COL) | 38.7% | 28.3% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Portugal (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.