Group B · QAT
· outside top-16
Qatar
Strength
68.1
± 1.7
Attack
69.6
0–100
Defense
66.8
0–100
P(champion)
0.0%
0.0% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.0%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
3.8%
R16
8.6%
Quarter
1.8%
Semi
0.3%
Final
0.0%
Recent form
last 6
L
0–1
@
Republic of Ireland
L
0–3
vs
TUN
D
1–1
vs
Syria
L
0–1
vs
Palestine
L
1–2
vs
Zimbabwe
W
2–1
vs
United Arab Emirates
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(QAT win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | H vs Switzerland (SUI) | 12.2% | 18.4% | |
| 2026-06-18 | A vs Canada (CAN) | 16.6% | 19.9% | |
| 2026-06-24 | A vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH) | 29.0% | 25.7% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Qatar (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.