Group A · RSA
· outside top-16
South Africa
Strength
71.2
± 1.7
Attack
68.5
0–100
Defense
73.2
0–100
P(champion)
0.04%
0.2% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.04%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
8.9%
R16
15.6%
Quarter
4.6%
Semi
1.1%
Final
0.2%
Recent form
last 6
D
0–0
vs
Nicaragua
L
1–2
vs
PAN
D
1–1
vs
PAN
L
1–2
v
Cameroon
W
3–2
v
Zimbabwe
L
0–1
v
EGY
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(RSA win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | A vs Mexico (MEX) | 16.9% | 25.0% | |
| 2026-06-18 | A vs Czech Republic (CZE) | 25.3% | 29.1% | |
| 2026-06-24 | H vs South Korea (KOR) | 24.8% | 30.2% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for South Africa (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.