Group C · SCO
· outside top-16
Scotland
Strength
75.4
± 1.8
Attack
74.7
0–100
Defense
75.3
0–100
P(champion)
0.27%
0.9% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.27%
to lift
Polymarket
0.2%
implied · 0.0pp
Kalshi
0.2%
implied · 0.0pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
7.2%
R16
24.5%
Quarter
9.1%
Semi
2.9%
Final
0.9%
Recent form
last 6
W
4–1
vs
CUW
L
0–1
v
CIV
L
0–1
vs
JPN
W
4–2
vs
Denmark
L
2–3
@
Greece
W
2–1
vs
Belarus
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(SCO win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | A vs Haiti (HAI) | 63.1% | 21.3% | |
| 2026-06-19 | H vs Morocco (MAR) | 21.3% | 31.1% | |
| 2026-06-24 | H vs Brazil (BRA) | 12.4% | 21.7% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Scotland (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.