Group I · SEN
· outside top-16
Senegal
Strength
78.2
± 1.6
Attack
75.5
0–100
Defense
79.5
0–100
P(champion)
0.9%
2.4% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.9%
to lift
Polymarket
0.6%
implied · +0.3pp
Kalshi
0.7%
implied · +0.2pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
17.8%
R16
34.5%
Quarter
14.7%
Semi
6.1%
Final
2.4%
Recent form
last 6
L
2–3
@
USA
W
3–1
vs
Gambia
W
2–0
v
Peru
L
0–3
@
MAR
W
1–0
v
EGY
W
1–0
v
Mali
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(SEN win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | A vs France (FRA) | 20.4% | 28.3% | |
| 2026-06-22 | A vs Norway (NOR) | 33.7% | 28.9% | |
| 2026-06-26 | H vs Iraq (IRQ) | 53.5% | 29.2% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
5 verified outlets for Senegal (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.