Group F · TUN
· outside top-16
Tunisia
Strength
75.0
± 1.6
Attack
71.1
0–100
Defense
77.7
0–100
P(champion)
0.19%
0.7% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.19%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · 0.0pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · +0.1pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
10.2%
R16
15.5%
Quarter
6.3%
Semi
2.2%
Final
0.7%
Recent form
last 6
L
0–1
@
AUT
D
0–0
@
CAN
W
1–0
v
HAI
L
1–1
v
Mali
D
1–1
v
Tanzania
L
2–3
v
Nigeria
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(TUN win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | A vs Sweden (SWE) | 29.4% | 29.9% | |
| 2026-06-20 | H vs Japan (JPN) | 24.9% | 31.0% | |
| 2026-06-25 | H vs Netherlands (NED) | 18.4% | 26.1% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
5 verified outlets for Tunisia (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.