Group H · URU
Uruguay
Strength
81.9
± 1.8
Attack
79.0
0–100
Defense
83.1
0–100
P(champion)
2.94%
6.2% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
2.94%
to lift
Polymarket
1.0%
implied · +1.9pp
Kalshi
1.1%
implied · +1.8pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
26.4%
R16
45.8%
Quarter
25.9%
Semi
14.2%
Final
6.2%
Recent form
last 6
D
0–0
v
ALG
D
1–1
@
ENG
L
1–5
@
USA
D
0–0
@
MEX
W
2–1
v
UZB
W
1–0
v
Dominican Republic
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(URU win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | A vs Saudi Arabia (KSA) | 60.5% | 26.6% | |
| 2026-06-21 | H vs Cape Verde (CPV) | 64.2% | 24.4% | |
| 2026-06-26 | H vs Spain (ESP) | 22.8% | 28.3% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for Uruguay (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.