Group D · USA
· outside top-16
United States
Strength
75.6
± 1.4
Attack
74.8
0–100
Defense
75.4
0–100
P(champion)
0.53%
1.7% reach final
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.53%
to lift
Polymarket
1.1%
implied · -0.6pp
Kalshi
1.3%
implied · -0.8pp
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-05-27.
Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
33.5%
R16
37.8%
Quarter
15.0%
Semi
5.0%
Final
1.7%
Recent form
last 6
W
3–2
vs
SEN
L
0–2
vs
POR
L
2–5
vs
BEL
W
5–1
vs
URU
W
2–1
vs
PAR
W
2–1
vs
AUS
Group fixtures
3 matches| Date | Match | P(USA win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | H vs Paraguay (PAR) | 39.7% | 29.0% | |
| 2026-06-19 | H vs Australia (AUS) | 40.7% | 27.2% | |
| 2026-06-25 | H vs Turkey (TUR) | 41.6% | 24.1% |
Context
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
Squad snapshot
No squad snapshot on file yet.
Availability
Injury feed pending.
Sources
4 verified outlets for United States (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.